Terravita Market Updates 7/11- 12/12
December 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
I hope you all had as great a holiday as I did and have already lost all that extra weight!! The kids, the weather, the real estate market, are all wonderful. There is much to be thankful for this year. It is truly a good life.
The Terravita real estate market continues to be on fire, along with the rest of the valley. The real estate schools are full again and you should expect to see a ton of new agents clamoring to grab a piece of the Terravita pie. This will be a very interesting season for me dealing with scads of agents who don't understand our market. But, over the past 29 years I have seen many of these cycles, and we will get through it.
Again.
For those you considering buying for yourself or as an investment, here are some thoughts:
5 Reasons to Buy a Home Now Instead of the Spring
Based
on prices, mortgage rates and soaring rents, there may have never been a
better time in real estate history to purchase a home than right now.
Here are five major reasons purchasers should consider buying:
Supply Is Shrinking
With inventory declining in many regions, finding a home of your dreams
may become more difficult going forward. There are buyers in more and
more markets surprised that there is no longer a large assortment of
houses to choose from. The best homes in the best locations sell first.
Don’t miss the opportunity to get that ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ buy.
Price Increases Are on the Horizon
Prices were expected to bounce along the bottom this winter. However,
many pricing indices (examples: CoreLogic, FHFA, LPS, Case Shiller) are
reporting that prices are continuing to rise.
Rents Are Skyrocketing
Rents historically increase by 3.2% on an annual basis. A study issued
earlier this year projects rent increases of 4% for the next two years.
Trulia recently reported that rents this year have actually shot up by
5.4%.
Interest Rates Are Projected to Rise
The Mortgage Bankers Association has projected that the 30-year mortgage
interest rate will be 4.4% by the end of 2013. That is an increase of
approximately one full point over current rates.
Buy Low, Sell High
We would all agree that, when investing, we want to buy at the lowest
price possible and hope to sell at the highest price. Housing can create
family wealth as long as we follow this simple principle. Today, real
estate is selling ‘low’. It’s time to buy.
Supply Is Shrinking
With inventory declining in many regions, finding a home of your dreams may become more difficult going forward. There are buyers in more and more markets surprised that there is no longer a large assortment of houses to choose from. The best homes in the best locations sell first. Don’t miss the opportunity to get that ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ buy.
Price Increases Are on the Horizon
Prices were expected to bounce along the bottom this winter. However, many pricing indices (examples: CoreLogic, FHFA, LPS, Case Shiller) are reporting that prices are continuing to rise.
Rents Are Skyrocketing
Rents historically increase by 3.2% on an annual basis. A study issued earlier this year projects rent increases of 4% for the next two years. Trulia recently reported that rents this year have actually shot up by 5.4%.
Interest Rates Are Projected to Rise
The Mortgage Bankers Association has projected that the 30-year mortgage interest rate will be 4.4% by the end of 2013. That is an increase of approximately one full point over current rates.
Buy Low, Sell High
We would all agree that, when investing, we want to buy at the lowest price possible and hope to sell at the highest price. Housing can create family wealth as long as we follow this simple principle. Today, real estate is selling ‘low’. It’s time to buy.
|
8 |
Closings for an Average of $214 per foot |
|
72 |
Average days on the market |
|
10 |
Homes under contract |
|
6 |
Price Changes |
|
32 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
| April | $198 |
| May | $216 |
| June | $197 |
| July | $189 |
| August | $186 |
| September | $195 |
| October | $206 |
| November | $214 |
November 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
Max, Jackson, and Olivia
Halloween 2012
Happy Day after Halloween! I was so busy trick-or-treating with Max,
Spiderman, and this Butterfly last night, that I didn't get a chance to
write the monthly update. (Please excuse Max, he is a little camera
shy!) So instead of an update, be inspired by this video: Click here .
Halloween 2012
Happy Day after Halloween! I was so busy trick-or-treating with Max, Spiderman, and this Butterfly last night, that I didn't get a chance to write the monthly update. (Please excuse Max, he is a little camera shy!) So instead of an update, be inspired by this video: Click here .
|
7 |
Closings for an Average of $206 per foot |
|
176 |
Average days on the market |
|
10 |
Homes under contract |
|
6 |
Price Changes |
|
24 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
| April | $198 |
| May | $216 |
| June | $197 |
| July | $189 |
| August | $186 |
| September | $195 |
| October | $206 |
October 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
In
last month’s update, I predicted that we will see the home prices
continue to increase through the fall. A couple of you adroitly took me
to task as you have not been seeing evidence of those increases in the
actual market. And you were right. While Terravita’s average price per
foot came up nicely this month, neither the local or greater Phoenix
market are showing evidence of these home price increases right now. I
have to admit that my earlier prediction was experiential and based on
gut, but I really didn’t express it that way, and I should have. I
still expect prices to rise, but we shall see in the upcoming months.
HEALTHCARE REAL ESTATE TAX
On
another note, many have been asking about the "Obamacare real estate
tax" and if it is for real. The answer is long, but I figure this is a
good forum to address it. Below are the 10 Things You Need to Know About
the 3.8% Tax according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
1.) When you add up all of your income from every possible source, and
that total is less than $200,000 ($250,000 on a joint tax return), you
will NOT be subject to this tax.
2.) The 3.8% tax will NEVER be collected as a transfer tax on real
estate of any type, so you’ll NEVER pay this tax at the time that you
purchase a home or other investment property.
3.) You’ll NEVER pay this tax at settlement when you sell your home or
investment property. Any capital gain you realize at settlement is just
one component of that year’s gross income.
4.) If you sell your principal residence, you will still receive the
full benefit of the $250,000 (single tax return)/$500,000 (married
filing joint tax return) exclusion on the sale of that home. If your
capital gain is greater than these amounts, then you will include any
gain above these amounts as income on your Form 1040 tax return. Even
then, if your total income (including this taxable portion of gain on
your residence) is less than the $200,000/$250,000 amounts, you will NOT
pay this tax. If your total income is more than these amounts, a
formula will protect some portion of your investment.
5.) The tax applies to other types of investment income, not just real
estate. If your income is more than the $200,000/$250,000 amount, then
the tax formula will be applied to capital gains, interest income,
dividend income and net rents (i.e., rents after expenses).
6.) The tax goes into effect in 2013. If you have investment income in
2013, you won’t pay the 3.8% tax until you file your 2013 Form 1040 tax
return in 2014. The 3.8% tax for any later year will be paid in the
following calendar year when the tax returns are filed.
7.) In any particular year, if you have NO income from capital gains,
rents, interest or dividends, you’ll NEVER pay this tax, even if you
have millions of dollars of other types of income.
8.) The formula that determines the amount of 3.8% tax due will ALWAYS
protect $200,000 ($250,000 on a joint return) of your income from any
burden of the 3.8% tax. For example, if you are single and have a total
of $201,000 income, the 3.8% tax would NEVER be imposed on more than
$1000.
9.) It’s true that investment income from rents on an investment
property could be subject to the 3.8% tax. BUT: The only rental income
that would be included in your gross income and therefore possibly
subject to the tax is net rental income: gross rents minus expenses like
depreciation, interest, property tax, maintenance and utilities.
10.) The tax was enacted along with the health care legislation in 2010.
It was added to the package just hours before the final vote and
without review. NAR strongly opposed the tax at the time, and remains
hopeful that it will not go into effect. The tax will no doubt be
debated during the upcoming tax reform debates in 2013.
FUN VIDEO
Finally,
to end on a fun note, check this new trend out called Flyboarding.
Amazing! (Don't miss the part about half way through when they go
underwater. Unreal. ) Click here
1.) When you add up all of your income from every possible source, and that total is less than $200,000 ($250,000 on a joint tax return), you will NOT be subject to this tax.
2.) The 3.8% tax will NEVER be collected as a transfer tax on real estate of any type, so you’ll NEVER pay this tax at the time that you purchase a home or other investment property.
3.) You’ll NEVER pay this tax at settlement when you sell your home or investment property. Any capital gain you realize at settlement is just one component of that year’s gross income.
4.) If you sell your principal residence, you will still receive the full benefit of the $250,000 (single tax return)/$500,000 (married filing joint tax return) exclusion on the sale of that home. If your capital gain is greater than these amounts, then you will include any gain above these amounts as income on your Form 1040 tax return. Even then, if your total income (including this taxable portion of gain on your residence) is less than the $200,000/$250,000 amounts, you will NOT pay this tax. If your total income is more than these amounts, a formula will protect some portion of your investment.
5.) The tax applies to other types of investment income, not just real estate. If your income is more than the $200,000/$250,000 amount, then the tax formula will be applied to capital gains, interest income, dividend income and net rents (i.e., rents after expenses).
6.) The tax goes into effect in 2013. If you have investment income in 2013, you won’t pay the 3.8% tax until you file your 2013 Form 1040 tax return in 2014. The 3.8% tax for any later year will be paid in the following calendar year when the tax returns are filed.
7.) In any particular year, if you have NO income from capital gains, rents, interest or dividends, you’ll NEVER pay this tax, even if you have millions of dollars of other types of income.
8.) The formula that determines the amount of 3.8% tax due will ALWAYS protect $200,000 ($250,000 on a joint return) of your income from any burden of the 3.8% tax. For example, if you are single and have a total of $201,000 income, the 3.8% tax would NEVER be imposed on more than $1000.
9.) It’s true that investment income from rents on an investment property could be subject to the 3.8% tax. BUT: The only rental income that would be included in your gross income and therefore possibly subject to the tax is net rental income: gross rents minus expenses like depreciation, interest, property tax, maintenance and utilities.
10.) The tax was enacted along with the health care legislation in 2010. It was added to the package just hours before the final vote and without review. NAR strongly opposed the tax at the time, and remains hopeful that it will not go into effect. The tax will no doubt be debated during the upcoming tax reform debates in 2013.
|
5 |
Closings for an Average of $195 per foot |
|
221 |
Average days on the market |
|
9 |
Homes under contract |
|
3 |
Price Changes |
|
21 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
| April | $198 |
| May | $216 |
| June | $197 |
| July | $189 |
| August | $186 |
| September | $195 |
September 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
September
always signals two large events in Terravita- the possibility of cooler
weather and the beginning of the Terravita listing season. I don’t know
about the temperatures, but this year promises to be an exceptional
listing/selling season, as both inventory and interest rates remain
astoundingly low. Prices continue their slow but steady ascent and
those who have been waiting to sell in a better market should be amply
rewarded. But of course that begs the question: How long will this
last? Obviously I can’t answer that, but maybe I can give some insight.
There is no question that the extraordinary
reduction in inventory over the last few years was fueled by the
perception that our market was a bargain basement market. As the word
gets out of prices on the rise, that perception will begin to fade and
what will happen then? There have already been a number of national
articles and stories stating the 25%-30% year over year price increases
that Phoenix has been experiencing. (Phoenix Leads US Housing Recovery) Certainly, there will be many more in the months to come. Now is a very good time to sell!
For those considering selling their home,
USA today ran a pretty good piece on selling your home that was also
picked up by the Arizona Republic. I thought this might be helpful: USA Today.
.
(Scott
Note: The Summer price per square foot averages below don't appear to
reflect an increase in prices but that is normal for the summer sales
numbers. Trust me . . . prices are moving up.)
As always, thank you for all of your support. We wish you a happy and safe Labor Day weekend!
There is no question that the extraordinary reduction in inventory over the last few years was fueled by the perception that our market was a bargain basement market. As the word gets out of prices on the rise, that perception will begin to fade and what will happen then? There have already been a number of national articles and stories stating the 25%-30% year over year price increases that Phoenix has been experiencing. (Phoenix Leads US Housing Recovery) Certainly, there will be many more in the months to come. Now is a very good time to sell!
For those considering selling their home, USA today ran a pretty good piece on selling your home that was also picked up by the Arizona Republic. I thought this might be helpful: USA Today.
.
|
6 |
Closings for an Average of $186 per foot |
|
204 |
Average days on the market |
|
4 |
Homes under contract |
|
4 |
Price Changes |
|
19 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
| April | $198 |
| May | $216 |
| June | $197 |
| July | $189 |
| August | $186 |
August 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
Last month we showed you that Terravita was already approaching the average annual sales number even though we were just 6 months into the year. (Click here to read) This month I thought we would give you more mid-year statistics that you will find below, and as you will see prices are beginning to creep up.
(Cont. From last Month's Update)
|
|
4 |
Closings for an Average of $189 per foot |
|
195 |
Average days on the market |
|
10 |
Homes under contract |
|
5 |
Price Changes |
|
19 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
| April | $198 |
| May | $216 |
| June | $197 |
| July | $189 |
July 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
Click to read more:
Metro Phoenix home prices continue to rise
And Terravita is feeling the effects of this turning real estate market as the inventory begins to decrease to only 24 homes for sale in the community, compared to 56 at the beginning of the year.
Below is a chart showing the annual Terravita home sales for the last 5 years, including our year to date count for 2012. As you can see, at only halfway through the year we are already approaching our annual sales average.
I hope you are all as excited as I am about these changes in the market. Obviously the next few months will be slow as hot, sweaty summer traffic is too low to be competitive. (Even though we may be cooler than some midwestern states right now. Yikes!) But the trends for next fall look promising. If you know of ANYONE thinking of buying or selling please let me know. We can provide the statistics that not only prove our buyers and sellers will do much better with us, we can GUARANTEE it. Ask us about our Guaranteed Sale Programs for buyers and sellers!
|
13 |
Closings for an Average of $216 per foot |
|
94 |
Average days on the market |
|
9 |
Homes under contract |
|
6 |
Price Changes |
|
24 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
| April | $198 |
| May | $216 |
| June | $197 |
June 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
You have heard me harping on the change in our local market and rising prices since last fall. And as predicted, the media is finally catching on. By now most of you have seen or heard that the Case Shiller Index showed Phoenix as one of the country’s leaders in rising home values. (If not here is an example: Home prices rise in most major cities)
Great stuff, but I wanted to give you a visual of the market numbers, which is the purpose of today’s update.
If you are not familiar with Zillow.com, it is a fairly popular home valuation website. You can look up most addresses and it will give you a “Zestimate” of that home's values over time. Due to a lot of factors I won’t bore you with here, this tool is pretty poor on any individual value basis, but I like it for its trend lines. There is enough data provided that in the aggregate it can be quite good to see an area’s value tendencies and movements. I particularly like it today, to illustrate to you what I have been describing.
Below I have a created a 10-year home price history of Scottsdale and then of the major zip codes in our area. It didn’t come out as clearly as I had hoped when we placed it in the email, but I think you will find it interesting:
As always, if you know anyone looking to buy real estate please give us a call. We are never too busy for your referrals! We will ensure that they see the best inventory first, because the good stuff really is moving fast!
|
18 |
Closings for an Average of $216 per foot |
|
177 |
Average days on the market |
|
15 |
Homes under contract |
|
10 |
Price Changes |
|
30 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
| April | $198 |
| May | $216 |
May 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
Scott has been talking for months now about how the real estate market is finally shifting, and that the media is just starting to catch on. This article is more proof that the Phoenix real estate market is changing, and not only has the media caught on, but so have consumers!
- Lindsay
|
11 |
Closings for an Average of $198 per foot |
|
88 |
Average days on the market |
|
20 |
Homes under contract |
|
15 |
Price Changes |
|
38 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
| April | $198 |
April 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
The Terravita market is doing great. Traffic isn't as big as it normally is, but March had 18 homes go under contract (which means 18 homes sold this month). That is a HUGE month, and even though the price per foot actually went down a bit, there is nothing to worry about. Supply and demand still rules the day, and clearly the demand is there.
|
9 |
Closings for an Average of $190 per foot |
|
117 |
Average days on the market |
|
18 |
Homes under contract |
|
19 |
Price Changes |
|
46 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
| March | $190 |
March 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
In my update a few months ago I mentioned how our market has changed but it would take a few months for the media to pick up on it. Well, they are starting to notice. This piece was in USA Today on the 27th:
Signs of upturn in Phoenix's long-suffering housing market
On a more national level, Warren Buffet was interviewed on CNBC’s Squawk Box this week. In case you missed the interview, Buffet was asked about the current real estate market and his thoughts on whether now was the time to buy. His response has been used as a headline in hundreds of articles since:
He went on to discuss why now is the time to invest in real estate, saying real estate is a “very attractive asset class now” and that buying a home is a “terrific deal”. Buffet even touched on investing in multiple houses, saying “it’s a leveraged way of owning a very cheap asset now and I think that’s probably as attractive an investment as you can make now.”
If you know anyone looking to buy real estate please give us a call. We will ensure that they see the best inventory first, because the good stuff really is moving fast!
|
8 |
Closings for an Average of $197 per foot |
|
302 |
Average days on the market |
|
15 |
Homes under contract |
|
19 |
Price Changes |
|
56 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
| February | $197 |
February 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
(30 agents sold just one home in Terravita)
DOES MARKETING MATTER?
“We
interviewed Scott but decided to list our home with another agent. Even
though she used Scott’s photographer, after almost a year of no results
we called Scott back and hired him. He made a couple of important
changes to the way it was marketed, re-listed at the same asking price
as the other agent, and sold our home in just 30 days.” - Bunny Ross (6058 E. Evening Glow Dr.)
Please consider these four listings our team took over and re-listed after they were marketed by other agents for almost a year. Scott re-listed all of these homes at almost the exact same price and sold them all within 30 days.
We
believe deeply that marketing matters, and that our marketing creates
more significantly more demand for our sellers properties. (And we have
some evidence to support that belief.) Since price is a function of
demand, we believe we will get sellers a higher price in less time. If
you know of anyone who is considering selling their home, please have
them give us a call and let us explain why our marketing matters.
|
5 |
Closings for an Average of $203 per foot |
|
231 |
Average days on the market |
|
9 |
Homes under contract |
|
10 |
Price Changes |
|
56 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$203 |
January 1, 2012 Terravita Market Update
If you know of anyone who is thinking of selling their home, please tell them to give us a call and ask about our Guaranteed Home Sale Program and our Buy this Home and I'll sell yours for Free Program!
Seriously, our new home selling systems cannot be beat, and will ensure
not only that our sellers sell first, but that they net the most money
possible.
|
8 |
Closings for an Average of $196 per foot |
|
114 |
Average days on the market |
|
4 |
Homes under contract |
|
6 |
Price Changes |
|
48 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$185 |
|
February |
$196 |
|
March |
$200 |
| April | $192 |
|
May |
$186 |
| June | $167 |
| July | $173 |
| August | $183 |
| September |
$218 |
| October | $189 |
| November | $187 |
| December | $196 |
December 1, 2011 Terravita Market Update
I
haven’t discussed this for a while and I have had a number of people
ask me recently why I use price per foot. And my response is that I
really don’t use it! Or at least not to establish a home value. I do
use it to talk to people who aren’t as familiar with the way home values
are determined, because it is a good rule of thumb or a convenient
yardstick. Price per foot is a simple tool for approximating or
calculating home values for comparison purposes, but it has little do
with the way I establish the value of a home. In my 27 years selling
real estate and near 500 homes I have sold just in Terravita, I have
discovered the nuances of what the public will value in a property and
what they won’t. It isn't really a science but it is kind of an art.
Just as an example, I listed a home this month for $281 per foot even
though the average in Terravita is under $200! (And thanks to all of
you, we got it sold!)
I hope you enjoy getting my market updates and find that the price per
foot is helpful. I will have a new group of metrics early next year that
I think you will find more useful and like even better.
If you know of anyone who is thinking of selling their home, please tell them to give us a call and ask about our Guaranteed Home Sale Program and our Buy this Home and I'll sell yours for Free Program!
Seriously, our new home selling systems cannot be beat, and will ensure
not only that our sellers sell first, but that they net the most money
possible.
|
3 |
Closings for an Average of $187 per foot |
|
271 |
Average days on the market |
|
5 |
Homes under contract |
|
19 |
Price Changes |
|
46 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$185 |
|
February |
$196 |
|
March |
$200 |
| April | $192 |
|
May |
$186 |
| June | $167 |
| July | $173 |
| August | $183 |
| September |
$218 |
| October | $189 |
| November | $187 |
November 1, 2011 Terravita Market Update
Here are the October 2011 Terravita Real Estate Market’s statistics:
2
Closings for an Average of $189 per foot
167
Average days on the market
5
Homes under contract
9
Price Changes
42
Active Listings
Month
Average Price Per Foot
January
$185
February
$196
March
$200
April
$192
May
$186
June
$167
July
$173
August
$183
September
$218
October
$189
November 1, 2011 Terravita Market Update
|
2 |
Closings for an Average of $189 per foot |
|
167 |
Average days on the market |
|
5 |
Homes under contract |
|
9 |
Price Changes |
|
42 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$185 |
|
February |
$196 |
|
March |
$200 |
| April | $192 |
|
May |
$186 |
| June | $167 |
| July | $173 |
| August | $183 |
| September |
$218 |
| October | $189 |
October 1, 2011 Terravita Market Update
Even
though the weather hasn’t cooled much, many of the Terravita seasonal
homeowners are about to begin flocking back to Scottsdale. When they get
here, they will be pleased to discover that the Terravita real estate
market average price per foot is $9 per foot higher this September than
last September, and the inventory is actually a little lower than it was
last year at this time. But, if they have been giving any thought to
selling their home, they will blown away when they hear about how the
overall Phoenix real estate market is doing.
In October of 2007 there were 58,000 listings for sale in the Arizona
Regional Multiple Listing Service (YIKES!). This morning there were
only 19,000 homes available for sale, and the Greater Phoenix area has
been averaging over 8,000 sales per month in 2011! Obviously Terravita
is a much higher price point than the vast majority of these sales, but
clearly the market has changed!
selling their home until the market changed?
If
you know of anyone who is thinking of selling their home, please tell
them to give us a call and ask about our Guaranteed Home Sale Program
and our Buy this Home and I'll sell yours for Free Program!
Seriously, our new home selling systems cannot be beat, and will ensure
not only that our sellers sell first, but that they net the most money
possible.
|
2 |
Closings for an Average of $218 per foot |
|
32 |
Average days on the market |
|
4 |
Homes under contract |
|
8 |
Price Changes |
|
42 |
Active Listings |
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$185 |
|
February |
$196 |
|
March |
$200 |
| April | $192 |
|
May |
$186 |
| June | $167 |
| July | $173 |
| August | $183 |
| September |
$218 |
HEADS UP FOR SOME GOOD NEWS!
Thanks to everyone who stopped by the season opening Open House on Sunday. It feels great to be back in the saddle again, and I am very optimistic about this season! While I don’t feel the change in the weather yet, I really think I feel the change in the market. But don't take my word for it. If we can work it out, I am going to bring in the foremost authority on the real estate market here in the Valley to present next month. If you are interested, save the date for the morning of November 19th.
In my September month end wrap-up, I mentioned the extraordinary reduction in inventory the Valley has recently experienced. That speaks to a very local phenomenon that I believe will ultimately turn out very well for sellers, and for buyers that get off the fence soon. But I wouldn't expect the media to catch on any time soon - at least not our local media.
The national media may be a bit ahead of the curve though, and I thought you should know about it:
The Wall Street Journal
Last week, in an article entitled
“It’s an excellent time to buy a house, either to live in for the long term or for investment income…Houses aren’t the magic wealth creators they were made out to be during the bubble. But when prices are low, loans are cheap and plump investment yields are scarce, buyers should jump.”
In an article two weeks ago, MarketWatch.com (the online blog for WSJ) told their readers:
“Now could be the best time in history to buy a home.”
Forbes.com
In a report to their subscribers, Capital Economics reported that:
“The previous declines in house prices and the more recent drop in mortgage rates to record lows have created an unusual situation in which the median monthly mortgage payment is more or less the same as the median rental payment.”
Why is this important? Last week, Forbes explained to their readers:
“If rents simply kept up with inflation at a 3.2% annual increase, a $1,500 rent payment would cost that renter nearly $900,000 over the next 30 years. The same $1,500 payment made to their mortgage would be only $540,000 (because the payments don’t increase with inflation).”
They went on to explain the advantages of homeownership during retirement:
“Even with a dismal 1% growth rate over 30 years, a $300,000 property would appreciate well over $100,000 giving the homeowner an additional nest egg for retirement…
At a time when retirement is becoming much more challenging, an extra $400,000 (or likely more) can make a major difference not to mention the impact of NOT having to pay a mortgage. How much less would you have to save for retirement if you didn’t pay the mortgage?”
Bottom Line
When the local market appears to be making a large change, and an iconic financial newspaper and the financial magazine say that it makes financial sense to purchase a house now . . . it could be time to buy a home!
September 1, 2011 Terravita Market Update
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$185 |
|
February |
$196 |
|
March |
$200 |
| April | $192 |
|
May |
$186 |
| June | $167 |
| July | $173 |
| August |
$183 |
Sorry I missed you last month when I was traveling to Minnesota. We left the record heat in Minnesota to come back to Arizona for the hottest month ever! In the Terravita real estate market, August was a typically slow month with just 3 homes going under contract, but we are just 60 days away from the beginning of the fall season! Which means cooler weather and hotter sales numbers!
Since there wasn't much going on in the Terravita real estate market this month, I thought I would share a couple of things I found interesting.
- Former Cardinal quarterback, Kurt Warner, is selling his home and I thought you might get a kick out of seeing how a real class act lives. Click here to see the listing . Click here to see the listing . Click here to see the listing . (I added 3 links because we can only get 100 clicks for each link)
- An interesting map by AZCentral on home values. Click here to view .
- And in case you missed it in your mailbox, my latest postcard. Click here to view .
|
8 |
Closings for an Average of $183 per foot |
|
306 |
Average days on the market |
|
3 |
Homes under contract |
|
4 |
Price Changes |
|
34 |
Active Listings |
August 1, 2011 Terravita Market Update
|
Month |
Average Price Per Foot |
|
January |
$185 |
|
February |
$196 |
|
March |
$200 |
| April | $192 |
|
May |
$186 |
| June | $167 |
| July |
$173 |
Scott is in the wilds of Northern Minnesota this weekend with no internet access. He asked me to say that he hopes you are all enjoying your summer as well, and asked me to pass along this month's Terravita sales statistics. Enjoy!
Administrative Assistant to Scott Gaertner, P.C.
Keller Williams Northeast Realty
602-432-3208
|
10 |
Closings for an Average of $173 per foot |
|
102 |
Average days on the market |
|
5 |
Homes under contract |
|
7 |
Price Changes |
|
34 |
Active Listings |
Is The Greater Phoenix Market Heading Back Up?
Apparently Terravita real estate was not the only market to have an extraordinary sales month in June. According to the June Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports, there are some serious indications that our overall market could be bottoming out. Not everything is positive on the pricing side, but other metrics are beaming. As many of you know I am a bit of a skeptic, but I view my job as supplying you the information so you can make up your own mind.
I
don't want to get too “inside baseball” here, so below are just a few
of the more obvious highlights. I have included a couple of articles
and supportive graphs below for those of you who are interested.
Here are some highlights:
- On June 30th, 2,216 homes closed escrow in the Greater Phoenix area, The largest total we have ever recorded for a single day.
- June home sales in the Phoenix metro area surged to 11,125 units, the highest number of transactions in a decade
- Pending foreclosures have dropped dramatically since the darkest days of the housing crisis. Pending foreclosures dropped to 27,616 in June from a high of 50,568 in November 2009.
- Distressed
sales, which include both lender-owned sales and short sales, accounted
for nearly 68% of all sales or 7,544 units. Short sales increased
nearly 6% in June from May, signifying that some lenders might be more
willing to work out agreements with homeowners in order to avoid
foreclosure.
Suffice it to say that the news was good enough to cause Tom Ruff, a real estate analyst with the Information Market to say, "July could very well be a landmark month as some buyers start to realize what the investors have known for quite some time. Historically low prices coupled with historically low interest rates make a very strong tonic."
Don’t expect to read much about the market turnaround as the media and word of mouth are generally months behind the curve. Stay tuned . . .
Articles
Dust Storm
Just
a quick update in case you out of state owners are getting calls from
the people who watch your homes. Below is the reason why . . .
Tuesday night we had the largest dust storm I have seen in my 30 odd years in the Phoenix area. To give you a sense of the magnitude of the dust, here is a photo my son sent me from his iphone as the dust rolled through Scottsdale:
As
the photos below that I took the next morning should attest, the
aftermath was amazing. The streets in Terravita look like dirt roads,
and while it isn't as easy to see, the sidewalks and everything else is
coated with dust and/or mud.
Fortunately, the mess is nothing a
good rain can't clean up, but even though we are in the monsoon season
we haven't had any yet. The largest problem is the pools. I would not
want to be a pool cleaner this week.
Entering the Carefree Gate
Facing toward the Main Gate
66th Way
These cars were clean earlier in the day
Click here for an interesting piece regarding the storm:
July 4th, 2011 Terravita Market Update
The Gaertner twins are heading to the pool soon
but they wanted to be sure and wish everyone a safe and Happy 4th of July!!
July 1, 2011 Terravita Market Update
| Month | Average Price per Foot |
| January | $185 |
| February | $196 |
| March | $200 |
| April | $192 |
| May | $186 |
| June | $167 |
OMG!
What a June! The Terravita real estate market had a HUGE sales
month for June, with 13 homes going under contract*. Normal sales for
this month are in the 3 or 4 range, so 13 borders ridiculous and unheard
of.
But not quite . . .
I
do need to qualify this for my readers with a good memory though: We
actually had 12 homes go under contract in June of 2009, but that was THE aberrant
year of all years. You will recall that the quarter preceeding the
2009 sales year is when we first discovered that our booming economy was
actually built on sand, and that our investments were a mirage. The
hangover effect of that crisis completely inverted our normal sales
pattern, putting the bulk of the sales in the second quarter instead of
the first quarter where they have always been. It looked like this:
Now check out this year’s chart!
Does this mean we have hit bottom and prices are starting back up? Not likely.
In fact, as I have said here before, sales prices and temperatures have a strong inverse relationship in Terravita. This year is no exception. People don’t usually trudge around in 114 degree heat to make a “pretty good” deal. They are generally bargain hunting. The list price on the homes that went under contract in June averaged under $180 per foot, so you can bet it will be considerably lower when they close escrow. Never the less, 13 sellers moved closer to their goals.
What does great June sales mean to annual sales? It is too early to say, but it can’t hurt!
Happy Canada to our friends in the Northland!!
Here are the June 2011 Terravita Real Estate Market’s Statistics:
|
8
|
Closings for an Average of $167 per foot
|
|
107
|
Average days on the market
|
|
13
|
Homes under contract *
|
|
7
|
Price Changes
|
|
42
|
Active Listings
|
